Gonzalo Lira, “Poland Will Take a Bite out of Ukraine” (8 May 2022)
One little-known piece of news coming out of Russia’s current Special Military Operation to rid Ukraine of its Nazis is Poland’s proposal to send peacekeeping troops into western Ukraine. At the time Chilean-American vlogger Gonzalo Lira made his video “Poland Will Take a Bite out of Ukraine”, the Polish were apparently already assembling a peacekeeping force in southeast Poland on their own initiative separately from the European Union. Lira calls out the Polish action for what he (and many others, including Yours Truly) believe it to be: an annexation by stealth of territory in northwest Ukraine by Poland which the Poles themselves regard as theirs. Those who know Polish history know that the regions of Halych (Galicia) and Volyn (Volhynia) were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and part of the Republic of Poland from 1918 to 1939. These regions were subjected to Polonisation which was resented by the Ukrainians living there and the notorious Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) formed in 1929 to fight for and achieve Ukrainian independence.
Since Lira believes that Russia will eventually reclaim eastern and southern Ukraine, the issue now becomes: what do the Russians think of what Poland plans or may be planning to do? Lira believes that Russia is very likely to allow Poland to take Halych and Volyn. He refers to a post by Russian politician Dmitri Medvedev on Telegram in which Russia would have no objections and would not react if Poland were to invade and occupy these areas. Lira foresees that Ukrainian neo-Nazi / ultra-nationalists will see the Polish action for what it is and flock to Lvov and other major cities and towns in northwest Ukraine to resist Polish takeover. This is very likely to lead to instability in that part of Ukraine as Poland tries to pacify its annexation in the short term; in the long term, this instability will affect the rest of Poland militarily and economically and may even lead to outflows of refugees from Poland and the regions it took over. Lira is blunt: he foresees that Halych and Volyn will become Poland’s Vietnam, that is, a war that will go on and on for years, sapping Polish will and strength. Poland’s membership in NATO and EU may end up short-lived: other NATO member countries will not tolerate having a member unable to secure its borders and resolve its internal conflicts, and EU politicians may object to EU taxpayers having to support Poland financially – Poland already receives more EU funding than any other EU member – if that country were to embark on an unnecessary adventure that can only lead to disaster.
Russia may well be the winner from Poland’s stupidity: Polish annexation of northwest Ukraine may encourage other parts of Ukraine to hold independence referendums and seek to be part of the Russian Federation. These other areas hold the agricultural, industrial and mineral wealth that Ukraine has long been renowned for. Poland will end up with the most impoverished, least developed and most neo-Nazi part of Ukraine. Kiev may become the capital of a small rump state that itself may be further Balkanised and chopped up into smaller pieces still. To the Poles we may well say: Powodzenia!